Bitcoin Price Action

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S&P 500 and Nasdaq Continue Upward Momentum

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have been steadily climbing
to new highs, with the Nasdaq just 5.5% away from its all-time high.
This shows there is still risk appetite in the markets,
which is positive for crypto.
The markets have been absorbing supply
at higher levels before pushing higher.
This trend is likely to continue into 2021.

 

Total Crypto Market Cap Approaching 50% Retracement

The total crypto market cap is now just 7%
away from the key 50% retracement level at $1.56 trillion.
This is an important milestone
that could lead to a correction once hit.

 

Ethereum Losing Ratio Against Bitcoin

ETH/BTC continues its downtrend,
likely finding a bottom around Feb-March 2024.
This points to more near-term upside potential for Bitcoin.

 

Bitcoin Price Action

Bitcoin Surged 50% From September Lows

Bitcoin rocketed over 50%
since the September lows,
now approaching the key 50%
retracement level around $42K.
Time is running out to reach this target,
but even if hit, lower prices may never be seen again.

 

Historical Precedent Points to $42K Before Next Halving

Historically Bitcoin hits the 50% retracement
of the previous bear market around the halving.
The next halving is due in May 2024,
pointing to a test of $42K in the coming months.

 

Potential Correction Levels From Hypothetical $42K Top

Corrections from a hypothetical $42K top
are likely in the 12-40% range
based on historical pullbacks.
This would equate to prices between $37K and $30K,
all above the breakout level and September lows.
Only an improbable 50%+ crash
would revisit sub-$20K prices.

 

Market Has Absorbed Supply at Higher Lows

For 7 months, the market has seen higher lows,
indicating demand absorbing supply.
Breaking out above $32K further reduces
chances of revisiting below $30K.
Institutions are increasingly unlikely
to want to crash prices after accumulating.

 

Conclusion

Bitcoin Bull Market Intact, But Exercise Caution Near Tops

• The data shows the bull market remains intact, with strong upside to $42K likely.
• However, caution is warranted near the top as a correction is expected.
• Dips remain buying opportunities, but have reasonable targets to take profits.

Don't Wait for Deep Corrections, They May Not Come

• Traders waiting for a return to $20K or below will likely be disappointed.
• The market dynamics and structure no longer support deep corrections.
• Dollar cost average on dips instead of waiting for "the" bottom.